What Is an Outcome Token?
An outcome token (often called a "Yes share" or "No share") is a tokenized claim on one specific result of a prediction market. Each market issues two complementary outcome tokens — one for each side of a binary event — that together always pay out exactly $1.
If you hold a "Yes" outcome token and the event resolves "Yes," your token redeems for $1 in stablecoin. If it resolves "No," your token is worth $0. Because the two sides must sum to $1, the live price of a "Yes" outcome token (between $0 and $1) is the market's implied probability of "Yes" — read directly as a percentage.
How Do Outcome Tokens Work?
When a prediction market is created, the smart contract is ready to mint complementary "Yes" and "No" outcome tokens.
A user can deposit $1 of stablecoin and receive 1 "Yes" + 1 "No" token (a "complete set").
The user can sell either side on the order book or AMM and keep the other side as a directional position.
Other traders bid for "Yes" or "No" tokens directly with stablecoin.
At resolution, the winning token redeems for $1; the losing token expires at $0.
Key Features of Outcome Tokens
Probability Pricing
A "Yes" token at $0.65 means the market is pricing the event at 65% likely.
Composability
Onchain outcome tokens are typically ERC-20 (or equivalent) and can be transferred, used as collateral, or composed into other DeFi products.
Symmetry
"Yes" + "No" prices always sum to $1 (minus fees) — arbitrageurs keep this relationship tight.
Trade-Anytime
Outcome tokens can be bought or sold up until the resolution timestamp.
Self-Custody
Held in the user's wallet — they can withdraw, transfer, or hold them like any other token.
Outcome Tokens vs Sportsbook Bets
| Feature | Outcome Token | Sportsbook Bet |
|---|---|---|
| Tokenized | Yes (ERC-20 / equivalent) | No |
| Tradable mid-event | Yes — sell at any time | No (or limited cash-out) |
| Composable in DeFi | Yes | No |
| Counterparty | Other traders | The book |
| Custody | Self-custody | Operator |
Use Cases
Directional event trading — buy "Yes" or "No" tokens to express a view
Mid-event exits — sell tokens before resolution to lock in gains or cut losses
Hedging with onchain tokens that can be composed into other DeFi positions
Liquidity provision — supplying both sides of a market to earn fees
Outcome Tokens and Trust Wallet
Trust Wallet supports prediction-market platforms — Polymarket, Predict.fun, and Hyperliquid (HIP-4) — that use outcome tokens, letting users trade and hold these tokens in self-custody from the same wallet. Availability varies by region.
