What Is a Resolution Source?
A resolution source is the data feed, oracle, or designated authority that determines whether a prediction market resolves "Yes" or "No" at its expiry date. Every well-designed
event contract specifies a resolution source upfront, before trading begins, so all participants know exactly how the outcome will be decided.
The choice of resolution source is the single most consequential design decision in any prediction market. A market is only as trustworthy as its resolution source — if the source is ambiguous, manipulable, or unavailable, the market's payoff cannot be reliably settled.
How Resolution Sources Work
A market is created with a clearly-stated event and a resolution rule (e.g., "Resolves 'Yes' if the official BLS jobs report on June 6 shows unemployment above 4%").
The resolution source is named in the market description.
Trading proceeds with all participants aware of the source.
At resolution, the designated source is consulted.
The outcome is posted onchain (via an oracle) or recorded by the operator (in centralized markets).
Payouts are settled based on the source's reading.
Types of Resolution Sources
Public Data Feeds
Government statistics, central-bank announcements, sports scoreboards, election commissions. Used for objective, easily-verifiable outcomes.
Decentralized Oracles
Protocols like UMA (used by Polymarket) post outcomes onchain through bonded, dispute-resolved processes.
Designated Authority
Some platforms appoint internal reviewers or trusted third parties to call ambiguous outcomes — more common in centralized event-contract venues.
Hybrid
A primary public data feed with an oracle or operator fallback for ambiguous cases.
Resolution Source Comparison
| Type | Trust Model | Examples | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public data feed | Trust the issuer (e.g., BLS, election commission) | Macro data markets | Objective outcomes |
| Decentralized oracle | Trust bonded participants | UMA on Polymarket | Onchain markets |
| Designated authority | Trust the operator | Kalshi internal review | Ambiguous events |
| Hybrid | Layered fallbacks | Onchain markets with multi-source rules | Complex events |
Why Resolution Sources Matter
Disputes: A clear source minimizes resolution disputes; a vague one invites them.
Manipulation resistance: A widely-watched, decentralized source is harder to corrupt than a single private operator.
Latency: Some sources publish in seconds; others (e.g., final court rulings) can take weeks.
Coverage: Some events have no clean source — markets on vague or subjective claims should be approached with caution.
Use Cases
Trader due diligence: Always check the resolution source before taking a position — read the fine print on how "Yes" is defined.
Market design: Platforms compete partly on the quality of their resolution layer (Polymarket built around UMA; Hyperliquid uses its own onchain oracle).
Hedging: Hedgers need confidence that a market will resolve fairly to use it as risk management.
Resolution Sources and Trust Wallet
When users trade prediction markets through Trust Wallet's in-app integrations — on Polymarket, Predict.fun, or Hyperliquid (HIP-4) — they're trading on platforms that publish their
resolution sources upfront. Trust Wallet itself doesn't determine outcomes; the platform's resolution source (for example, UMA for Polymarket) does. Always review the resolution rule on
the market page before trading.
